Economic analyses in Spring 2021
Külgazdaság has been publishing the analyses and the forecasts of the economic research institutions since 2001 and we follow the tradition in this issue. As to the Spring World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund, “global prospects remain highly uncertain one year into the pandemic. New virus mutations and the accumulating human toll raise concerns, even as growing vaccine coverage lifts sentiment. (…) Global growth is projected at 6 percent in 2021, moderating to 4.4 percent in 2022.” But the European outlook is more modest and even Hungary will lag behind the 2019 results – this is the consensus domestic research institutions have concluded. It is only Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the National Bank of Hungary) that gives a chance to offset all the losses of the economy had suffered in 2020. Financial Research Plc. published its forecast on March 24. The National Bank of Hungary introduced its Inflation Report on March 25. GKI Economic Research Co. released its outlook on March 30. Századvég Economic Research sent its analysis to Külgazdaság on March 31. KopintTárki Institute of Economic Research Co. closed the series of presentations on April 7. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: A1, E0, E6.
A new mega-regional trade agreement: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
The objective of this paper is to provide a comparative evaluation of the recently signed mega-regional trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). From among the broadly defined antecedents, the report gives an overview on the circumstances of the
emergence of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These initiatives are closely associated with the fact that since its foundation in 1995, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has been unable to strike any important multilateral agreement. The failure to nominate new members to the Appellate Body has, by now, paralysed the WTO. However, the signing of the RCEP, together with CPTPP, represents the rise of Asia and the Pacific region and, at the same time, the diminishing influence of the United States in the region. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F10, F13, F15.
Key issues for deepening the European Union Description and reflections on the book Péter Halmai: Deep integration. Economics of Economic and Monetary Union (Akadémiai Kiadó, 2020, Budapest, 538 pages, in Hungarian)
In his book, Péter Halmai discusses the theoretical, economic strategic and economic policy aspects of European integration. It provides a new, comprehensive analysis of the economics of the economic and monetary union. He points out that European integration is a deep and broad form of regional economic cooperation. It explores and demonstrates that depth is crucial to the European integration. A novelty is the analysis of the main features of deepening, the complex presentation of the economic mechanisms, determining factors and the institutional system facilitating deep integration Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F15, F36
Plurilateral international treaties in the system of the World Trade Organization DALMA TAKÓ The Doha Round made it clear that the multilateral treaty system of the World Trade Organization is not operable. The consequences caused by this fact – a long-continued crisis and serious tensions – need to be solved. Among the possible solutions, plurilateral treaties get more and more attention in international trade law. However, there are several different opinions on these agreements. Due to the increasing actuality of this issue, this paper deals with the definition, status, role and significance of plurilateral treaties within the treaty system of the WTO. These aspects are examined not only on the basis of the Marrakesh Agreement, but also from the perspective of sources available in public international law and international trade law. The purpose of the paper is to expose the current problems in connection with plurilateral treaties and also, to possibly answer emerging issues. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) code: K33