Külgazdaság Vol. 3-4/2014

Economic Analyses in Spring 2014

In springtime every year economic research institutes and other institutions publish their analysis about the performance of the previous year, as well as their forecasts. The press  usually informs only  about  the  most important economic data and about the analysis in a few words, the detailed studies prepared by the institutions do not reach those who are interested. This is the reason why since 2001 we have been publishing short summaries of the reports and prognoses made by research institutes. These analyses sum up the consequences of the economic policy, the tensions concerning the fiscal adjustments and structural reforms, the uncertain prospects of economic growth.

 Macroprudential Paradigm Shift in Hungarian Banking Regulation

KATALIN MÉRŐ – DÓRA PIROSKA

 Within the framework of macroprudential paradigm shift – which focuses on systemic risks to maintain financial stability – governments that had to intervene during the financial crisis now require banks to comply with more and stricter rules which makes banking more expensive. The new paradigm also empowers state institutions vis-à-vis the banking industry. The article analyzes the Hungarian case of the international paradigm shift in banking regulation in relation to changes in regulation and the institutional framework of supervision between 2008 and 2013. Its main findings are as follows: (1) the 2008 agreement between the Hungarian government and the IMF played an important role in the paradigm shift, (2) regulations enacted in the framework of the new paradigm made the Hungarian state institutions more powerful vis-à-vis the banking sector, (3) banks in Hungary were critical of changes due to one of the new paradigm’s inherent quality, namely that it makes banking more costly. Finally, solely on the basis of this analysis the theoretical question whether banking becomes more stable with the implementation of the macroprudential paradigm may not be answered definitely.

Role of Aid for Trade in enhancing the intra-trade of ECOWAS

BEÁTA UDVARI – KATALIN KIS

The Aid for Trade initiative has become one of the facilities of international development cooperation since 2005. Its objective is to improve the developing countries’ participation in world trade through developing the supply-side capacity in these countries. Since its launch, several analysis were born proving the positive impacts of Aid for Trade, however, it is not investigated – as far as we know – whether the Af T assistance may increase the trade within an economic integration. Thus, current study analyses whether Af T has contributed to the increase of the ECOWAS intra-trade, if yes, in what extent. The research is based on gravity model. Our results show that the Af T has a negative impact on the intra-trade of ECOWAS, meaning that the Af T may have trade diversion effect in certain integrations.

 Legal supplement

Contractual modification – change of circumstances under the new hungarian Civil Code and the Proposal of the Common European Sales Law (CESL)

GABRIELLA VINCZE, DR.

As long as the European Union strives to find new ways in unification in the field of contract law, the hungarian legislation had proceeded too, in the last few years, and achieved a comprehensive legal work: the new hungarian Civil Code. This study analyses and tries revealing the connection between the newest legal instruments of the European Union and Hungary, as a Member State, through the regulation of modifying of contracts because of change of circumstances (clausula rebus sic stantibus). The foreground and antecedents of this legal institution are taken into account, as well as principles and rules of the substantive law of contract, recognised interna- tionally or in the European Union. Nevertheless, the main line of the study is about the comparison between the Commission’s Proposal of the Common European Sales Law, and the new hungarian Civil Code.

 

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